IN TRIPURA, “TECTONIC SHIFT” FROM LEFT TO RIGHT

(Image Source: indiablooms.com

Whatever seems to be impossible, for the duo: Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP President Amit Shah, turns out to be victorious, and sometimes with much bigger margin. With this, Tripura gives, the BJP it’s CM number 15. The journey from “Shunya” to “Shikhar”, in BJP’s ideological battle against the Left, in a region that is crucial to RSS plans, the Tripura result is more than another state victory. With PM Modi in Party’s Delhi Headquarters dedicating this victory to the slain party workers died in political clashes in the state, CPI (M) General Secretary, Sitaram Yechury blamed the “money and muscle power” used by the BJP in all northeastern States. After ruling for straight 20 years out of 25 years of Left Rule in Tripura, the outgoing Chief Minister Manik Sarkar would never have mused of such a fierce loss and that too from their arch rival.

TRIPURA IN NUMBERS

In the 60 member (elections were held on 59 seats) assembly of Tripura, BJP swept 35 with a handsome vote share of 43%, while CPM managed 16 seats with a vote share of 42.7%. In Assembly Elections of 2013, the Left front won 50 seats with a starling vote share of 52.32%, whereas BJP garnered a miniature 1.4% vote share with 0 seats. With such a bitter performance, 49 of 50 BJP candidates even lost their deposits in those elections. But the answer to how Tripura was won is - CONGRESS. Congress has been in power twice – from 1972-77 & again from 1988-93. This time the party slashed from 10 (in 2013) to 0 and the vote share from 44.60% (in 2013) to 1.8%. Losing in its first-ever direct contest with the BJP, the CPI (M) on Saturday laid the burden of defeat in Tripura at the door of the Congress. The party, in a statement, said the BJP managed to consolidate all anti-Left votes by “appropriating the [votes of the] erstwhile main Opposition party, the Congress”.

(Image Source: Outlook India)

 BJP’S INROADS

According to a report published in The Indian Express, the BJP started gaining ground over the past two years. Approximately, 12000 congress party workers left the party to join the BJP alongside five MLAs left party to join BJP before jumping into TMC. On the face of it, BJP’s parent body, Rashtriye Swayamsevak Sangh, with 60 shakhas in 2014 to 265 shakhas now, was busy itself on the ground, preparing the cadre from last three decades. RSS, somehow focused on the tribal vote to benefit the BJP. The tribal voter felt cheated of the CPM. As the RSS worked in the background, the BJP put own “Shah-style” organization at booth level to match the Left Front’s cadre.

FACTORS

As results started pouring in, analysts suggested that the Left Front misread the BJP’s ability and had no answer to its aggressive campaigning by PM Modi, President Amit Shah, Chief Minster from various BJP ruled states, Union Ministers and even by some MPs. Factors like non-payment of 7^th pay commission award to 1.6 lakhs government employees weighted in. Anti-incumbency was a major factor too. Just like every other elections, BJP represented itself as the only alternative that can bring Vikas (development) in the state. The common notion of “Chalo Paltai” (let’s change) paved the way for BJP. Tripura, the state with highest number of unemployment rates, with less or no industries, bounded the youth either to shift to metro cities or go for Defence. Yet, the CPM could only offer its empty rhetoric of egalitarian revolution.

(Image Source: Hindustan Times)

 In this first straight contest between revolutionary & counter-revolutionary ideology, there is little doubt that this tremendous, morale booster results show the BJP’s strategic outlook & tactical brilliance. Many Political analysts, before elections mentioned number of factors even like PNB-Nirav Modi Scam that may harm the BJP in the state elections of Tripura, Meghalaya & Nagaland. The latest by-poll setbacks in BJP-rules Rajasthan and then in Madhya Pradesh, which is with the BJP since 2003, counted in for the possible deficient voting for the party in the North-East. But all these speculations manifested inapt and as the PM said in Delhi on the results-day, “Fitting reply to rumors, lies & fear.”